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몽골 경제 발전전략: CGE분석 및 사례연구 (Mongolian Economy Development Strategy: CGE Analysis and Case Study)

Author

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  • Lee , Chang-Soo

    (Kyung Hee University)

  • Song , Backhoon

    (Sungshin Women's University)

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 개도국 경제성장 및 발전이론과 개발 과정에서 자원부국이 경험하는 특성 등을 고려하여, 몽골 경제 정책권고 사항을 도출하였다. 이를 위해 몽골 경제 연산가능일반균형(computable general equilibrium: CGE) 모형을 작성하여 정량분석을 시도하는 한편, 자원부국의 경험에 대한 사례연구로 정성분석을 수행하고, 양자를 결합하여 정책적 시사점을 도출하였다. CGE 분석에서는 몽골의 광산품 생산‧수출 소득의 다양한 지출패턴이 초래하는 차별적인 장기 경제성장 결과에 주목하면서, 교육‧보건투자와 인프라스트럭처 투자가 지속적 장기성장을 견인하는 역할을 강조하였다. 정성분석에서는 어떻게 네덜란드병(Dutch Disease) 효과를 최소화하면서 지속적 장기성장을 견인할 수 있는지에 대한 사례를 발굴하였다. English Abstract: This study derived policy implications and recommendations to Mongolian government by considering theories on economic development and past experience of other countries together. Specific methodologies adopted in this study are Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis and survey of policy experiences of natural resource abundant countries. In CGE analysis, we specially emphasis on the effects of various fund allocations generated by export behaviors on economic growth in the long run. The results show that policies of investments on education, public service sectors, and infrastructure can generate higher economic growth rather than policies for current consumption expansion. In addition, we deliver how resource abundant countries overcome so-called Dutch Disease and pursue the sustainable economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee , Chang-Soo & Song , Backhoon, 2013. "몽골 경제 발전전략: CGE분석 및 사례연구 (Mongolian Economy Development Strategy: CGE Analysis and Case Study)," Policy Analyses 13-32, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:kieppa:2013_032
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2443637
    Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.
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