일본 재정의 지속가능성과 재정규율에 관한 연구 (A Study on Japanese Fiscal Sustainability and Fiscal Discipline)

Korean Abstract: 본 보고서는 2011년 동일본대지진을 거치면서 일본 재정의 지속가능성에 관한 논의가 재점화되고 있음을 지켜보면서, 일본 정부의 재정규율 메커니즘을 집중 분석하였다. 특히 일본의 중앙정부뿐만 아니라, 지자체와 사회보장기금으로 연구범위를 확대하여 일본 재정의 지속가능성 문제를 검토하고, 이들 분야에서 재정규율이 작동하지 않았던 메커니즘을 해명하여 우리 정부의 재정운영에 대한 정책적 시사점을 도출하였다. 향후 우리나라의 고령화 속도나 저성장 기조의 정착 등을 감안하면 우리나라의 재정 역시 일본의 전철을 밟을 개연성이 충분하다고 보았기 때문이다. English Abstract: This report analyzes Japanese government's fiscal discipline mechanism, focusing on the fiscal sustainability of Japan which has re-ignited controversy after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. The research scope covers the fiscal sustainability of central and local governments of Japan as well as that of social security funds. The main purpose of this report is to clarify how the fiscal discipline mechanism has failed in Japan, and to draw policy implications for Korean government's fiscal management. It is highly probable that the economic and fiscal conditions in Korea will follow in the footsteps of Japan’s case, taking into account its rapid aging speed and onset of low growth rate. Chapter two reviews fiscal sustainability issues of Japanese central government through key indicators, then introduces the studies dealing with Japanese fiscal sustainability from an economic perspective. We find that fiscal conditions in Japan has not been sustainable since the late 1990s. Nevertheless, Japan is free from fiscal crisis in virtue of its 'zero-interest rates policy'. At the same time, foreign investors’ lower holding of Japanese government bonds contributes significantly to avoid fiscal crisis in Japan. Second half in chapter two exhibits the importance of tax reform to establish the future fiscal sustainability in Japan. We examine the background of Japanese government putting emphasis on consumption tax reform against individual income or corporate tax yet going through countless political impasses. Chapter three shows that Japan's cumulative government debt has derived from the relaxation of fiscal discipline in the government's budget operation and the relationship between politics and bureaucrats. The relaxation of fiscal discipline in Japan has three major points. First, frequent issue of government bonds does not comply with the Golden Rule in Article four of the Public Finance Act. Second, a large part of various economic measures is organized in supplementary budget, which is free from the budgetary ceiling guidelines set by the Ministry of Finance Japan. Third, this budgetary ceiling guidelines also contributed to encourage budget planning with political considerations since 1990s, especially in public investment. It is apparent that the power game between politicians and bureaucrats limits the budget examination authority of the Ministry of Finance. Second half in chapter three analyzes three examples of how Japanese government intended to promote the establishment of fiscal discipline in the past; Hashimoto cabinet adopting Fiscal Structural Reform Law in 1997, Koizumi cabinet proposing Intergrate Expenditure and Revenue Reform in the early 2000s, and National Fiscal Management Strategies of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in 2010. We point out the limits of expenditure cut priority and the lack of national consensus on the reform. Chapter four covers fiscal sustainability and fiscal discipline issues of Japanese local governments. First, we examine the fiscal capacity of local governments through expenditure and revenue indicators. We confirm the main two factors threatening the local fiscal sustainability in Japan are the lack of resources on revenue side and the increase in social security spending on expenditure side. Then, we confirm that the Japanese government has put efforts on the reform of local revenue-sharing system and local tax system to promote the local fiscal sustainability. The reform of local revenue-sharing system is focused on reduction of reliance on temporary local bonds, adjustment of local subsidy through identifying local fiscal demand, pur