동아시아의 가치사슬구조와 역내국간 FTA의 경제적 효과 분석 (East Asian Value Chains and Economic Effects of Free Trade Agreements)

Korean Abstract: 우리나라는 아세안, 미국, EU 등과의 FTA를 마무리한 이후 동아시아국가들과의 FTA추진에 박차를 가하고 있다. 우리나라는 2012년 5월 한·중 FTA 협상을 개시한 이후 한·중·일 3국간의 FTA와 더불어 중국, 일본, 아세안, 인도, 뉴질랜드, 호주 등과 함께 RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) 협상을 2012년 말에 착수하였다. 최근 동아시아국가 상호간에는 무역 및 투자가 활발하며 제도적 통합도 많이 이루어져 있다. 또한 중간재교역 및 외국인투자가 활발하게 이루어지면서 기업의 생산과 판매 등 많은 생산과정이 자회사 및 협력회사에 급속하게 분할되고 있다. 이에 따라 동아시아국가들은 국제무역 및 투자에서 부가가치가 생성되는 글로벌 가치사슬에 빠른 속도로 편입되고 있다. 우리나라로서는 동아시아의 글로벌 가치사슬을 효율적으로 활용하기 위해 역내국간 FTA를 통해 무역·투자 등 상호의존성을 강화하고 제도적 통합을 가속화할 필요가 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구는 동아시아의 가치사슬구조를 국별 및 산업별로 분석하고, 부가가치 기준 원산지규정에 따른 동아시아 FTA 협상의 시나리오별 경제적 효과를 분석함으로써, 정부의 동아시아 FTA 협상 추진을 위한 참고자료를 제공하고자 한다. English Abstract: Companies have set up global value chains by fragmenting the production processes including product design, outsourcing, assembling, and marketing to subsidiary and cooperative firms since the 1990s. As a result, recent trade patterns have been transformed from trade in goods to trade in tasks. The rise of global value chains has changed the trade and investment patterns in East Asia. The East Asian intra-regional trade and investment has increased substantially in recent years. Specifically, the intra-regional trade of intermediate goods in East Asia turned out to increase compared to the EU and the US, and East Asian value chains have grown rapidly in recent years. This paper calculates the indicators to show how the global value chains have deepened in each region by using the World Input-Output Tables which cover 41 countries and 35 sectors during 1996~2009. The indexes of global value chains have been proposed by Fally (2011), Fally (2012), Antras and Chor (2011), Antras et al. (2012), Koopman et al. (2010), OECD (2012), Meng et al. (2006). We calculated international downstreamness and upstreamness indexes based on the international input-output tables. The international downstreamness index in case of East Asia turned out to be relatively high compared to the EU and NAFTA. It is notable that the East Asian international upstreamness index also increased substantially during the same period. This study also decomposes the trade in value added into domestic and foreign contributions in order to analyze the effects of global value chains on the East Asian intra-regional value added. It uses the data for the 41 countries and the 35 industries contained in the World Input-Output Tables. This study investigates the shares of intra-regional value added for the East Asian countries by FTA scenarios, applying the methodologies developed by Koopman et al. (2010) and Hummels et al. (2001). It is not surprising to see that the shares of intra-regional value added turn out to be dependent on the number of countries joining FTAs, which implies that the positive effects of global value chains will be magnified with the deepening regional integration. This study also analyzed the economic effects of value chain structure in East Asia by various FTA scenarios. We used the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the value chain structure in trade and industrial linkages. The policy simulations based on rules of origin are expected to provide more realistic results and meaningful implications consistent with previous research. According to the results, the economic growth effect of a KC FTA is greater than other FTAs regardless of strictness of rules of origin. The simulation results also indicate that the effects of FTAs decrease as rules of origin become stricter and relative decreases in ratios of economic integration are less than those of bilateral FTAs. The value chain structures turn out to magnify the effects of KC FTA and RCEP, but decreases those of the KJ FTA because Korea’s trade dependency on China and ASEAN are relatively intense. The results from this study provide some policy recommendations as follows. Global trade liberalization is needed to maximize the positive effects expected from the global value chains. East Asian countries also need to harmonize the border measures including standards, SPS, and TBT which are expected to facilitate global value chains in the region. The liberalization of services such as distribution, finance, and business services among others are also expected to contribute to efficient movement of goods and materials in the intra- and inter-region trade. Specifically, the East Asian countries need to harmonize the intra-regional bilateral FTAs to reduce the so-called noodle bowl effects.