러시아·중국·인도 삼각협력체제의 전략적 함의와 시사점 (The Strategic Connotation and Implications of the Strategic Triangle of Russia, China and India)

Korean Abstract: 러시아․중국․인도 간의 전략삼각체제 형성은 냉전해체 이후 세계질서의 재편과정에서 최대의 정치적 사건 중 하나로 기록되고 있다. 1993년에 옐친 대통령이 당시 탈냉전의 성격을 ‘차가운 평화’로 언급하면서 삼국 간의 전략적 협력의 아이디어를 내비친 이래 1996년 유라시아주의에 친화적인 프리마코프가 외무장관에 임명되어 삼각협력구상이 현실화되었다. 2006년 이래로 러․중․인 삼국은 상호 간에 '국가의 해' 선포를 통해 양자 간 정치 경제적 협력뿐 아니라, 사회적 가치의 공통성 확보를 위한 문화적 접근을 시도하고 있다. ‘앙땅뜨 체제’로 해석될 수 있는 '러․중․인 삼각체제'는 ‘정치동맹’ 또는 ‘유사동맹’으로, 견고한 군사동맹체제라기보다는 유연한 형태의 ‘네트워크 동맹’의 성격을 띠고 있다. 중․러 관계에 대한 부분은 세 가지 주요 내용으로 구성되어 있다. 첫째, 냉전 이후 최근까지 갈등과 협력의 이중성을 띤 중․러 관계의 간단한 역사를 개괄적으로 소개하고 있다. 둘째, 특히 탈냉전기 중․러 관계의 발전에 큰 영향을 끼쳐왔던 협력요인과 갈등요인들을 중점적으로 다루고 있다. 셋째, 아시아 태평양 지역에서 미국이 헤게모니를 유지하기 위해 압도적인 영향력을 행사하는 상황에서, 본고는 중․러 관계의 확대 강화라는 후원 속에 어떻게 러․중․인(RIC)란 새롭게 부상하는 전략적 삼각축이 세력균형을 노린 다극체제를 형성할 수 있는지를 예비적으로 검토하고 있다. English Abstract: It is noted that the formation of the Strategic Triangle of Russia, China and India is one of the most significant political events in the rearrangement of world order after the Cold War. After President Yeltsin defined the situation after the end of the Cold War as a 'cold peace' and proposed the idea of strategic co-operation among the three nations in 1993, the initiative was taken in 1996 by Yevgeny Primakov, then Russian foreign minister, who supported the idea of 'eurasianism.' Since 2006, after their declaration of the Year of Russia, Year of China and Year of India, the three nations have endeavored not only to enhance political-economic cooperation but also to build common values by taking a cultural approach. The Strategic Triangle of Russia, China and India, which can be interpreted as an 'Entente Cordiale,' can be defined as a 'political alliance' or 'quasi-alliance' closer to a network alliance rather than a military alliance. This paper is composed of three main parts. First, this paper outlines a brief history of Sino-Russian relations which has demonstrated dual aspects of conflict and cooperation since the Cold War era. Secondly, it gives special focus to several cooperative and competing factors that exercised great influence on the development of relations between China and Russia in the post-Cold War era. Third, considering that American forces have played an overwhelming role in maintaining US hegemony in the Asia-Pacific, it examines how the RIC regime as a burgeoning strategic triangle might go on to establish a multi-polar system for power balancing, under closer cooperation between China and Russia. Regarding factors of cooperation between the two nations, we can summarize some factors briefly. These include: settlement of the Sino-Russian border dispute, exclusion of the 'three evils', comprehensive economic cooperation, military cooperation such as holding joint military exercises, arms imports from Russia, and mutual exchange of revolution in military affairs (RMA), etc. As part of a search for a multi-polar system to counter US hegemony, this would involve reinforcing a multilateral or regional cooperation system including SCO, RIC, BRICs, Six party talks, etc. On the other hand, there are also some conflicts which not only prevented the two nations from establishing full-fledged ties, but actually pose a greater long-term threat to each other. There are still some factors hindering the development of closer relations between the two nations and enhancing their mutual confidence, such as engagement of the US in Asia, emergence of a G-2 system, the 'China threat' derived from the Rise of China, and competition for SCO leadership.