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A model for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the Uzbekistan economy

Author

Listed:
  • Evgeny Vinokurov

    (Eurasian Development Bank)

  • Alexey Kuznetsov

    (Eurasian Development Bank)

  • Marina Sobolevskaya

    (Eurasian Development Bank)

  • Aigul Berdigulova

    (Eurasian Development Bank)

Abstract

This report presents the results of the development of a model for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the Uzbekistan economy, created to be integrated into the general system of macroeconomic forecasting and analysis of economic processes in the EDB member countries. More detailed information on the integrated system of models (ISM) is presented in the joint report of the Eurasian Development Bank and the Eurasian Economic Commission (EDB, 2016). Structure of the report: a description of the integration of Uzbekistan’s model into the model complex used by the EDB. The specific economic features of Uzbekistan taken into account in the model are presented. The structure of the model and calibration of parameters are explained. Methodological aspects, analysis of sensitivity of the model to various macroeconomic shocks and its predictive ability are considered.The appendices detail the statistical data with an indication of sources and provide a system of equations.

Suggested Citation

  • Evgeny Vinokurov & Alexey Kuznetsov & Marina Sobolevskaya & Aigul Berdigulova, 2025. "A model for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the Uzbekistan economy," Working Papers 023516, Eurasian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eabrwp:023516
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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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