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The economic impact of sanctions and Russian countermeasures following the Russian invasion of Ukraine until the 5th EU sanctions package

Author

Listed:
  • Nilsson, Lars

    (DG Trade)

  • Antimiani, Alessandro

    (DG Trade)

  • Jan, Schmitz

    (DG Trade)

Abstract

We use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model analysis to show estimates of the medium-term economic impact of the sanctions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and related Russian countermeasures. Sanctions covered are those legally in place and announced against Russia and Belarus by Canada, the EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland, the UK, the US, and countersanctions by Russia until 25 March 2022. The results simulating the impact of those measures point to a reduction in Russian GDP of 3.7%, amounting to a strong recession, at a level rarely seen in such modelling exercises. EU GDP would fall more modestly by 0.08%.

Suggested Citation

  • Nilsson, Lars & Antimiani, Alessandro & Jan, Schmitz, 2023. "The economic impact of sanctions and Russian countermeasures following the Russian invasion of Ukraine until the 5th EU sanctions package," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2022-4, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2022_004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian invasion of Ukraine; sanctions; economic modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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