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O prêmio de risco da taxa de câmbio no Brasil

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A principal explicação sugerida pela literatura para o viés do preço futuro em relação à taxa de câmbio que prevalecerá no futuro é a existência de um prêmio de risco. Aplicamos aqui os principais modelos teóricos e técnicas econométricas para identificação e mensuração do prêmio de risco aos dados brasileiros do mercado futuro de câmbio posteriores ao Plano Real. Identifica-se um prêmio de risco que varia ao longo do tempo, o qual correlaciona-se com os fundamentos macroeconômicos da economia. A partir de 1999, coerentemente com a introdução da livre flutuação cambial, observou-se uma diminuição da importância do prêmio de risco relativamente aos erros de previsão na composição do forward discount. As técnicas empregadas permitem-nos avaliar importantes questões de política econômica, como o quanto podem cair as taxas de juros reais.

Suggested Citation

  • Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Gino A. Olivares, 1999. "O prêmio de risco da taxa de câmbio no Brasil," Textos para discussão 409, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:409
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    JEL classification:

    • C29 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Other
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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