Mapping the US Energy Economy to Inform Transition Planning

Over the next several decades, the United States and the world will need to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst effects of climate change. This imperative implies an unprecedented transition in the energy system away from greenhouse-gas-emitting fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and toward clean energy sources, such as wind, solar, and nuclear, along with emerging technologies, such as large-scale energy storage and carbon capture, use, and storage. This transition will be challenging for a variety of technical, political, and socioeconomic reasons.This report seeks to inform transition planning by identifying the regions of the United States that will experience substantial economic changes due to a shift away from fossil fuels. These communities will require considerable attention and funding from federal policymakers to support employment, economic development, public finances, and more as the production and consumption of fossil fuels decline (National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine 2021).Because local conditions vary widely, the mix of policy supports will vary from region to region. Although this brief is not intended to describe the scope of potential federal interventions, one key feature of any successful transition effort will be extensive engagement and collaboration between local stakeholders and federal agencies that can provide transition assistance (Look et al. 2021). To facilitate this collaboration, federal policymakers will need to identify the communities and regions that are likely to be most affected and understand the degree of potential impact, an effort recently begun by the federal Interagency Working Group on empowering workers in energy communities (Interagency Working Group on Coal and Power Plant Communities and Economic Revitalization 2021).