Critical Mineral Policies for Supply Chain Diversification and Price Hedging

Many of the supply chains for critical minerals run through China, raising concerns over political, national security, and economic risks. In February 2026, the United States hosted representatives of 54 countries and the European Commission to “reshape the global market for critical minerals and rare earths” (US Department of State 2026). The United States proposed a “plurilateral” initiative, the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE). See Blakemore and Harmon (2026), Urecki (2026), Baskaran and Schwartz (2026), Froman (2026), and Northey and Bikales (2026). FORGE would “friendshore” critical mineral supplies among allied countries by geographically diversifying supply chains through investments in each country’s supply capacities.FORGE would create what Vice President JD Vance called a “preferential trading zone” that would establish “reference prices for critical minerals at each stage of production.” The price floors would protect new critical mineral investments by allies from price declines, thus lowering investment risk. To maintain the price floors, coalition countries would impose “adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity.”The United States also announced the establishment of the US Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, “Project Vault,” See Baskaran (2026), Northey and Bikales (2026), Urecki (2026), and Brunelli and Moerenhout (2026). a public-private partnership financed by a $10 billion loan from EXIM and $2 billion of private capital. “The goal of the stockpile is to protect the private sector from supply disruptions and price volatility” (Uricke 2026). Vault incorporates deep involvement by the private sector in determining the necessary types and quantities of inventory holdings.This brief first considers the concerns about Chinese dominance of critical mineral markets, the implementation challenges of FORGE, and strategies for addressing those challenges. It then considers how Vault complements FORGE by giving buyers of critical minerals an additional tool for hedging their purchases against upward price shocks.