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The Non--Monotonic Relationship between Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

  • Carlos Vegh

    (University of Maryland)

  • Amartya Lahiri

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Viktoria Hnatkovska

    (University of British Columbia)

We calibrate the model to match the business cycle regularities of emerging economies. We then conduct policy experiments involving the domestic interest rate and demonstrate the central result of the paper: the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates is non-monotonic. We find that increases in the interest rate up to 35% both appreciate the currency and induce a fall in the rate of currency depreciation. However, more aggressive increases in the domestic interest rate both depreciate the currency as well as increase the rate of currency depreciation. Our results provide an explanation for the inability of non-structural empirical models to find a systematic relationship.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2007 Meeting Papers with number 1003.

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Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed007:1003
Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA
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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2267, The World Bank.
  5. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2000. "A New Database on the Structure and Development of the Financial Sector," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 597-605, September.
  6. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
  7. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:119:y:2004:i:1:p:1-48 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Easterly, William & Mauro, Paolo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1992. "Money demand and seignorage - maximizing inflation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1049, The World Bank.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Calvo, Guillermo A & Vegh, Carlos A, 1995. "Fighting Inflation with High Interest Rates: The Small Open Economy Case under Flexible Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 49-66, February.
  11. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  12. George R. Moore & Richard D. Porter & David H. Small, 1990. "Modeling the disaggregated demands for M2 and M1: the U.S. experience in the 1980s," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 21-112.
  13. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:110:y:1995:i:4:p:975-1009 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Fernando Alvarez & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies: technical appendices I and II," Staff Report 155, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. Correia, I. & Rabelo, S. & Naves, J.C., 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," RCER Working Papers 382, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  16. Martin Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2004. "Country spreads and emerging countries: who drives whom?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  17. Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Prescott, Edward C. & Fitzgerald, Terry & Alvarez, Fernando, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 533-559.
  18. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  19. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark: Dollar Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1175-1194, August.
  20. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
  21. Carlos Montoro & Ramon Moreno, 2011. "The use of reserve requirements as a policy instrument in Latin America," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  22. Rabanal, Pau, 2007. "Does inflation increase after a monetary policy tightening? Answers based on an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 906-937, March.
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