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¿Amortiguadores o amplificadores? Evidencia microeconómica sobre el rol de los inventarios en la producción peruana

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Gonzaga

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Diego Mamani-Arpasi

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

El presente trabajo busca contrastar la hipótesis de suavizamiento de la producción, según la cual los inventarios amortiguan choques de demanda. Utilizando información trimestral de balances de empresas reportados a la Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores, se construyen medidas de inventarios, ventas y producción, encontrándose que la producción es más volátil que las ventas y que los inventarios presentan un comportamiento procíclico, sugiriendo que estos no cumplen un rol estabilizador. Motivado por estos hechos, el estudio estima mediante datos de panel una función de ajuste parcial de inventarios inspirada en el modelo de acumulación de inventario tipo (S,s), hallándose un ajuste no lineal y asimétrico: las firmas corrigen más rápidamente la escasez que el exceso de inventarios respecto a su nivel óptimo, destacando la relevancia del costo de desabastecimiento. Asimismo, dicha velocidad de ajuste se intensifica en recesiones, reforzando el carácter procíclico observado, y sugiriendo un rol amplificador de los inventarios en el ciclo económico.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Gonzaga & Diego Mamani-Arpasi, 2026. "¿Amortiguadores o amplificadores? Evidencia microeconómica sobre el rol de los inventarios en la producción peruana," Working Papers 2026-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:dt-2026-006
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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