Gender Bias or Gender Benefit? Estimating the Effect of Candidate Gender on Voting Behavior: A Regression Discontinuity Approach Using Close House Primaries

Can gender discrimination explain the limited growth of female election to the House of Representatives? Do female politicians lead to female voter empowerment? We answer these questions with a novel regression discontinuity design using close House primaries between 1982-2012. We find that female candidates do not effect political participation among women, but do effect participation among partisans. Female Republican candidates consistently depressed turnout among Democrats and had differential effects on Republican turnout across time. While they decreased turnout among Republicans in earlier elections, female Republican candidates increased turnout among Republicans in later elections. An analysis of the effect of female candidates on turnout by gender and party identification reveals that female candidates do not encourage women to vote. To the contrary, they were more likely to increase turnout among men. Female Democratic candidates increased turnout only among male Democrats while female Republican candidates differentially increased turnout only among male Independents.