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Population Resettlement in War: Theory and Evidence from Soviet Archives

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  • Yuri M. Zhukov

Abstract

Why do combatants intentionally uproot civilians? The forcible relocation of families and communities to concentration camps, ``protected villages'' and other special settlements is a regular feature of irregular war, occurring in almost a third of all counterinsurgency campaigns since 1816. Despite the historical regularity of these practices, most research has focused on individual decisions to flee, rather than the brute-force resettlement of civilians by combatants. Using a dynamic model of popular support and new micro-level data from Soviet secret police archives, I show that civilian resettlement is not simply a by-product of war, but is a rational response to informational asymmetry. Combatants who cannot identify and selectively punish their opponents face incentives to control the population rather than earn its support. For strong governments with limited coercive leverage, civilian resettlement offers a way to reduce rebel activity without having to win hearts and minds.

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  • Yuri M. Zhukov, "undated". "Population Resettlement in War: Theory and Evidence from Soviet Archives," Working Paper 136631, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    • Handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:136631
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    File URL: http://scholar.harvard.edu/zhukov/node/136631
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin O Fordham, 2020. "History and quantitative conflict research: A case for limiting the historical scope of our theoretical arguments," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(1), pages 3-15, January.
    2. David Siroky & Valery Dzutsati, 2015. "The Empire Strikes Back: Ethnicity, Terrain, and Indiscriminate Violence in Counterinsurgencies," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(3), pages 807-829, September.
    3. Yuri M. Zhukov, 2014. "Theory of Indiscriminate Violence," Working Paper 365551, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    4. Abbey Steele, 2018. "IDP resettlement and collective targeting during civil wars," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(6), pages 810-824, November.
    5. Berman, Eli & Matanock, Aila, 2015. "The Empiricists' Insurgency," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5zs4h0sh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    6. Yuri M. Zhukov & Charles H. Anderton & Jurgen Brauer, "undated". "On the Logistics of Violence," Working Paper 255276, Harvard University OpenScholar.

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