Expected Inflation in Canada 1965-1979: How Rational are Business Forecasts?
An annual time series of expected inflation for Canada 1965-1979 is constructed using inflation forecasts published in two major newspapers. First the method of constructing the series is explained. Then the time series is run through a number of tests to see how accurate the forecasts were. In particular rationality of expectations is rejected, due to an element of bias. Despite the rejection of rationality for the period 1965-1979 the inflation forecasts were better than commonly supposed.
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