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Forecasting Tourism Arrivals and Annual Investment in the Tourist sector in Cyprus

Author

Listed:
  • Glenn P. Jenkins

    (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, Canada and Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus)

  • John Strong

    (Department of Business Administration, Williams and Mary University)

  • J.Tomas Hexner

    (Founder and director, Science Initiative Group at the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, New Jersey)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to forecast tourist arrivals to Cyprus on an annual basis through to the year 2015 and to estimate the incremental infrastructure costs attributable to these tourist arrivals. A further goal of the study was to institutionalize within the Cyprus Development Bank (CBD) the forecasting process by creating a means, specially models and spreadsheets, first, to alter key assumptions, second, to examine alternative scenarios and third, to update tourist forecasts and their concomitant infrastructure costs. It was considered important to involve a broad spectrum of Cyprus’s decision makers during the execution phase of the study. Therefore, forecast and their underlying methodology were presented to a group of key decision makers in Nicosia in 1995 and the analysis and comments emerging from the workshop have been integrated in to this study, and the model and spreadsheet, which have been transferred to the CBD.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn P. Jenkins & John Strong & J.Tomas Hexner, 1995. "Forecasting Tourism Arrivals and Annual Investment in the Tourist sector in Cyprus," Development Discussion Papers 1995-07, JDI Executive Programs.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:dpaper:4555
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cyprus; tourism development; infrastructure cost; and tourism demand forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate

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