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Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Portugal: A Nonparametric Quantile Approach

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  • Fernando Cascão
  • Katja Neugebauer

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of house prices in Portugal, where nominal prices have doubled over the past decade. Using asking prices for residential properties from 2018 to 2022, we compare the accuracy of several machine learning techniques and select gradient tree boosting as the optimal model for analyzing the complex dynamics of the housing market. Structural property characteristics and neighborhood factors – such as proximity to amenities, demographics, and household financial standing – emerge as significant determinants, with their influence varying across price quantiles and districts. Furthermore, we introduce prediction intervals using conformalized quantile regression, providing a more robust measure of estimation uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Cascão & Katja Neugebauer, 2025. "Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Portugal: A Nonparametric Quantile Approach," Working Papers w202506, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202506
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/documents/2025-04/WP202506.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Norman Miller & Michael Sklarz, 2012. "Integrating Real Estate Market Conditions into Home Price Forecasting Systems," Journal of Housing Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 183-213, January.
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      More about this item

      JEL classification:

      • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
      • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
      • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
      • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
      • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
      • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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