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Chinese Investment and Elite Sentiment in Southeast Asia: An Event Study of Influence Along the Belt and Road

Author

Listed:
  • Yining Sun

    (Princeton University)

  • Ethan B. Kapstein

    (Princeton University)

  • Jacob N. Shapiro

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

Recent years have seen growing concerns expressed by political leaders throughout the west about rising Chinese “influence†around the world. Yet measuring political influence remains a challenge to social science. In this paper, we seek to advance our understanding of influence by comparing the expressed attitudes towards China of elected officials within three Southeast Asian states (the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia) whose districts have received Chinese Belt and Road investments versus those who have not. Specifically, we interact a China-related foreign policy “shock†with sentiment analysis based on Twitter and Facebook posts. We find little support for the assertion that Chinese investments are leading to increased political influence in these countries, at least in terms of influencing the sentiments expressed by local politicians.

Suggested Citation

  • Yining Sun & Ethan B. Kapstein & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2023. "Chinese Investment and Elite Sentiment in Southeast Asia: An Event Study of Influence Along the Belt and Road," Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) Working Papers 37, Empirical Studies of Conflict Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:pri:esocpu:37
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    File URL: https://esoc.princeton.edu/WP37
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    JEL classification:

    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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