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Measuring Flood Risk in Czechia with Stress Testing and a Gumbel copula‑based VaR

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  • Marek Folprecht

Abstract

The study presents a holistic approach to modeling flood risk of real estate properties. The method combines the hydrological flow simulation model and a model of financial losses. Two use cases of the model are discussed. First, a stress testing method, based on historical scenario simulations, is presented. Next, a Value at Risk approach using the Generalized extreme value distribution and the Gumbel copula is discussed. Both methods are then tested on a large sample of Czech house data. The results show that the model can replicate the order of historical flood magnitudes under the historical scenarios. Moreover, the Value at Risk approach can generate scenarios unseen in recent history. The model could be a useful flood losses modeling tool for banks, insurance companies, real estate investment companies or state agencies. A special case for stressing credit risk parameters for mortgage portfolios is discussed in more detail.

Suggested Citation

  • Marek Folprecht, 2025. "Measuring Flood Risk in Czechia with Stress Testing and a Gumbel copula‑based VaR," FFA Working Papers 6.001, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 01 Jan 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlwps:v:6:y:2026:id:6.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Germann, Maximilian & Kusmierczyk, Piotr & Puyo, Christelle, 2023. "Results of the 2022 climate risk stress test of the Eurosystem balance sheet," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    2. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2004. "A well-conditioned estimator for large-dimensional covariance matrices," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 365-411, February.
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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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