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Stressing of Migration Matrices for IFRS 9 and ICAAP Calculations

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  • Jiří Witzany

Abstract

Rating transition matrices have become a workhorse of the IFRS 9 expected credit loss and ICAAP stress test modelling. The standard method to stress a through-the-cycle transition matrix is based on a single factor Gaussian model with a correlation parameter that is usually estimated on the level of a product pool. The goal of the paper is to generalize the model allowing for more general distributional assumptions and to test empirically the sensitivity of the results with respect to these assumptions and different possible approaches to the correlation parameter estimation. We are not aware of any such empirical study in the literature. The results show that this dependence is very strong with the standard approach underestimating the results, as we argue, of a more precise calculation many times. Therefore, there is a significant model risk that needs to be taken into account in ICAAP/IFRS 9 implementation and dealt with in further research.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiří Witzany, 2017. "Stressing of Migration Matrices for IFRS 9 and ICAAP Calculations," FFA Working Papers 2.001, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 21 Feb 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlwps:v:2:y:2020:id:2.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ICAAP; IFRS 9 provisions; correlation; Probit model; Logit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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