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Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

Author

Listed:
  • Anwar Gasim
  • Lester C. Hunt
  • Jeyhun Mikayilov

    (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)

Abstract

Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition to waste and agriculture, account for most anthropogenic CH4 emissions globally (IPCC 2018). Although CH4has only a 12-year lifetime in the atmosphere, it is 84 times more potent per ton than CO2 in a 20-year period and 28 times more potent in a 100-year period (IPCC 2018). The drastically stronger short-term potency of CH4 explains why its short-term impact on global warming is considerably greater than that of CO2. Therefore, meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement necessitates not only decarbonization but also significant CH4 emissions reductions, especially in the near term.

Suggested Citation

  • Anwar Gasim & Lester C. Hunt & Jeyhun Mikayilov, 2023. "Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics," Discussion Papers ks--2023-dp03, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2023-dp03
    DOI: 10.30573/KS--2023-DP03
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    Keywords

    Belt and Road; Capital expenditure; Circular Carbon Economy; CO2 emissions;
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