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Harga Minyak Merosot: Negara Untung Atau Rugi
[Tumbling Oil Prices: Gains or Losses]

Author

Listed:
  • Mansur, Alfan

Abstract

Sejak pertengahan 2014 sampai dengan awal tahun ini, harga minyak mentah telah mengalami pelemahan lebih dari 75 persen. Harga minyak jenis WTI turun tajam hingga menyentuh level terendah dalam 12 tahun terakhir. Pun demikian dengan minyak mentah Indonesia (ICP) yang mengalami pelemahan hingga 44 persen selama 2014 dan 40 persen selama 2015. Pelemahan harga minyak mentah dunia yang dipicu oleh banjirnya pasokan dibarengi dengan pelemahan permintaan secara global tersebut telah memberikan dampak yang signifikan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Dari sisi makroekonomi, pelemahan harga minyak telah menyebabkan turunnya PDB walaupun efek signifikannya hanya dirasakan dalam jangka pendek. Dari sisi APBN, berdasarkan mekanisme subsidi BBM yang lama, penurunan harga minyak mentah merupakan keuntungan mengingat besarnya subsidi energi melebihi penerimaan dari sektor migas. Namun, berdasarkan mekanisme subsidi BBM yang baru, penurunan harga minyak mentah merupakan kerugian mengingat besarnya penerimaan dari sektor migas yang hilang. Merosotnya harga minyak mentah juga berdampak pada rendahnya inflasi di dalam negeri.

Suggested Citation

  • Mansur, Alfan, 2016. "Harga Minyak Merosot: Negara Untung Atau Rugi [Tumbling Oil Prices: Gains or Losses]," MPRA Paper 93946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Mar 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93946
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/93946/1/MPRA_paper_93946.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mansur, Alfan, 2015. "The Endogeneity of Oil Price Shocks and Their Effects on Indonesia: A Structural Vector Autoregression Model," MPRA Paper 93627, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Dec 2015.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    minyak mentah; makroekonomi; APBN; subsidi; penerimaan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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