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Theoretical Model to Estimate System Uncertainty in Economics

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  • Kuzmin, Evgeny A.

Abstract

The purpose of this article - more precisely definition for the approach to a quantitative assessment of the system uncertainty in view of identified methodological assumptions. According to academic ideas in today's economic studies, all cases of represented uncertainty are usually divided into three groups, i.e. the environmental uncertainty, the decision-making uncertainty and the uncertainty of consequences from made decisions. Such kinds of unpredictability only cover a part of an economic cooperation. There are aspects in place that go beyond the conventional view. Their synthesis through the prism of the system uncertainty is a pressing research objective. Prerequisites have been identified that contribute into method justification and specify the requirements to it; an approach to the estimation has been presented in a formalized way with a specified number of essential points. The content of common uncertainty errors has been also revealed. In the approach development, as a result, existing uncertainty circles (cycles) have been recognised.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuzmin, Evgeny A., 2016. "Theoretical Model to Estimate System Uncertainty in Economics," MPRA Paper 74665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74665
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74665/1/MPRA_paper_74665.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kuzmin, E. A., 2012. "Uncertainty and certainty property estimation of organizational-economic system," MPRA Paper 39372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Viktoria Akberdina & Anatoliy Grebenkin & Olga Smirnova, 2017. "Comprehensive Assessment of Industries Economic Security: Regional Aspect," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1264-1279.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    System uncertainty; Group of polensive entropy; Group of singular entropy; Uncertainty circle.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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