A Simple Approach for Estimating the Relative Membership Growth Potential of Rotary Districts

This brief applies a simple framework for assessing the relative potential for Rotary membership growth in different geographic areas. The analysis is relative in that areas are compared to each other through an econometric procedure. By design about half of the areas are considered as performing comparatively well in that they have membership rates above expectations. The other areas are considered as performing less well because they have membership rates below expectations, and thereby more potential for growth. The simulations entail assessing how much membership growth could be achieved by raising the performance of less well performing areas to their expected levels of performance. The analysis is conducted for Rotary zone 33, which covers part of the Mid Atlantic and South Atlantic regions of the United States. The results for all 15 districts belonging to zone 33 from the application of the methodology to the zone are available in separate briefs for each district. This brief explains the methodology used the analysis.