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Changing Pattern in World Textile Trade

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Abstract

The objective of this study is to forecast the future trade patterns and to identify the determinants of exports of textile and clothing. We included top 18 leading exporting countries and zones from the textile and clothing sector. Those countries cover more than 70 percent of global exports and 60 percent of imports in textile and clothing sector. They cover 81 percent of the Gross World Product (GWP). To quantify the impacts of causal factors on imports and exports, we developed an econometric model and found that financial liquidity, endogenous production of cotton and the magnitude of imported raw material and intermediate goods are the root-causes of export of textile and clothing products, while, GDP and exports of textile and clothing products are identified as good predictors of import of textile and clothing products. The study concludes surprising results and mentions that Mexico, Taipei, Hong Kong and India will be the net loosers, while Pakistan, Indonesia, Poland, and Australia will be the net gainers in free trade regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayub, Mehar, 2002. "Changing Pattern in World Textile Trade," MPRA Paper 391, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2002.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:391
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/391/1/MPRA_paper_391.pdf
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    Keywords

    Free trade Regime; Simultaneous Equations; Simulation Modeling; Regression Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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