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Complexity Science Models of Financing Health and Social Security Fiscal Gaps

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  • Hayes, James A

Abstract

Many think health and Social Security markets and social insurance programs are broken because they are increasingly unaffordable for too many Americans. Bending the cost curve down has become a standard reference term for the main objective of reform proposals to slow cost increases or even reduce them. This paper presents an alternative model with preliminary results of statistical analyses of complexity science simulation models with historical data that quickly bend the GDP curve up to increase affordability. This paper looks beyond popular reform models to self-organizing complexity science models based on chemistry, physics, and biology theories to suggest sustainable, long-term financial reform proposals. The foundation of these proposals is not based on orthodox market failure economic models but rather on thermodynamics in general and the time evolution of Shannon information entropy in particular:

Suggested Citation

  • Hayes, James A, 2012. "Complexity Science Models of Financing Health and Social Security Fiscal Gaps," MPRA Paper 36372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36372
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36372/1/MPRA_paper_36372.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Auerbach, Alan J. & Gale, William G., 2010. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: On the Dismal Prospects for the Federal Budget," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 63(3), pages 543-560, September.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

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