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A partial differential equation to express a business cycle :an implication for Japan's law interest policy


  • Kuriyama, Akira


This study presents an equation of income derived from the Keynesian IS curve and the consumption Euler equation that explains the business cycle. Drawing on multi-period data from Japan, the model confirms the conventional wisdom that the appropriate policy response to an inflationary gap is to increase the interest rate when economic growth accelerates and decrease it when growth decelerates. However, the model indicates that to stabilize a deflationary gap, policymakers should decrease the interest rate when growth accelerates and increase it when growth decelerates. This prescription defies generations of conventional wisdom but fits the historical data remarkably well.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuriyama, Akira, 2011. "A partial differential equation to express a business cycle :an implication for Japan's law interest policy," MPRA Paper 35166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35166

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Jolly, Richard & Stewart, Frances (ed.), 1987. "Adjustment with a Human Face: Volume 1, Protecting the Vulnerable and Promoting Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286097.
    2. Paul Mosley & Robert Holzmann & Steen Jorgensen, 1999. "Social protection as social risk management: conceptual underpinnings for the social protection sector strategy paper," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(7), pages 1005-1027.
    3. Hulya Dagdeviren & Rolph van der Hoeven & John Weeks, 2000. "Redistribution Matters: Growth for Poverty Reduction," Working Papers 99, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK.
    4. Kanbur, Ravi & Lustig, Nora, 1999. "Why is Inequality Back on the Agenda?," Working Papers 127690, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    5. Bob Deacon & Isabel Ortiz & Sergei Zelenev, 2007. "Regional Social Policy," Working Papers 37, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    6. Gustav Ranis & Frances Stewart, 2005. "Dynamic Links between the Economy and Human Development," Working Papers 8, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    7. José Antonio Ocampo, 2006. "Market, Social Cohesion, and Democracy," Working Papers 9, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    8. Lustig, N. & Mcleod, D., 1996. "Minimum Wages and Poverty in Developing Countries : Some Empirical Evidence," Papers 125, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
    9. Francois Bourguignon, 2004. "The Poverty-growth-inequality triangle," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 125, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
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    More about this item


    BusinessCycle; Partial Differential Equation; Japan; Monetary Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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