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The Credibility of the Exchange Rate Regime: An Analysis trough “Derivatives” of the September 1992 Crisis


  • Garofalo, Giuseppe
  • Barbato, Fabio


This paper argues that, in the September 1992 European currency crisis, market trends in derivatives, in terms of price volatility and change in volumes traded, might have represented an early indicator, in reference to the spot market, of the lack of confidence in the ability of the Italian Lira and the Sterling Pound to maintain their parities within the ERM. The assessment is made by comparing the daily data on Italian/English interbank rates with the implicit yield on short-term interest rate futures and with a maximum compatible with the ERM band created by means of German interbank rates and changes in the exchange rates

Suggested Citation

  • Garofalo, Giuseppe & Barbato, Fabio, 1996. "The Credibility of the Exchange Rate Regime: An Analysis trough “Derivatives” of the September 1992 Crisis," MPRA Paper 13360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13360

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jean Imbs & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Stages of Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 63-86, March.
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    4. Santiago Fernandez de Córdoba & Sam Laird & David Vanzetti, 2005. "Trick or Treat? Development Opportunities and Challenges in the WTO Negotiations on Industrial Tariffs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(10), pages 1375-1400, October.
    5. Marcelo Olarreaga & Çaglar Özden, 2005. "AGOA and Apparel: Who Captures the Tariff Rent in the Presence of Preferential Market Access?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 63-77, January.
    6. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    8. Svedberg, Peter, 1991. "The Export Performance of Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(3), pages 549-566, April.
    9. Khalid Sekkat, 2004. "The sources of growth in Morocco: an empirical analysis in a regional perspective," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7356, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. MacBean, A I & Nguyen, D T, 1980. "Commodity Concentration and Export Earnings Instability: A Mathematical Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 354-362, June.
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    12. Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Karingi, Stephen & Oulmane, Nassim & Perez, Romain & Lang, Rémi & Ben Hammouda, Hakim, 2005. "Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements," MPRA Paper 12875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item


    Derivatives; Exchange rates; Volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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