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Doors and Engines: A Theory of Selection and Treatment Effects in European Integration, with Evidence from Greece and Türkiye

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  • Okyar, Aida Idil

Abstract

This mixed-methods study examines whether economic development preceded or was strengthened by European Economic Community (EEC) membership through a comparative analysis of Greece and Türkiye. Drawing on economic growth, transformation, and institutional theories, it uses comparative, qualitative, and quantitative evidence to assess European integration's determinants and consequences. The findings indicate that Greece's accession depended mainly on democratic consolidation, institutional quality, and macroeconomic stability, not economic development, with long-term economic benefits emerging gradually after accession. Although full European Union (EU) membership offers larger economic gains than Türkiye's partial integration, these benefits depend on domestic institutional capacity and reform. Overall, the study concludes that accession was a political and institutional selection process, while membership acted as a conditional driver of long-term economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Okyar, Aida Idil, 2026. "Doors and Engines: A Theory of Selection and Treatment Effects in European Integration, with Evidence from Greece and Türkiye," MPRA Paper 130345, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:130345
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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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