“Shpërbërja e Afërt e Federatës Ruse: Modelet Historike dhe Katalizatorët Modernë[The Imminent Dissolution of the Russian Federation: Historical Patterns and Modern Catalysts]

The article examines Russia’s long‑standing pattern of expansionist warfare and argues that these historical dynamics, combined with modern geopolitical pressures, are pushing the Russian Federation toward an imminent breakup. Drawing on centuries of conflicts—from the Russo‑Turkish wars to Soviet‑era occupations—the author highlights how Russia has repeatedly used military force, ideological manipulation, and proxy groups to dominate neighboring regions. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the study argues that Vladimir Putin’s restoration strategy relies on tools such as Islamist networks, corruption, organized crime, energy coercion, propaganda, and nuclear intimidation. Russia’s wars in Georgia and Ukraine are presented as extensions of this strategy, with the 2022 invasion marking a turning point that exposes deep structural weaknesses inside the Russian state. The article emphasizes Russia’s extreme ethnic and linguistic fragmentation, noting over 150 languages, 193 ethnic groups, and numerous republics where ethnic Russians are not the majority. Based on these internal divisions, the author predicts that the Russian Federation could fragment into dozens of new states, similar to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The study concludes that a united Europe and Ukraine’s military resilience are accelerating Russia’s decline, framing the Russian Federation as the modern “Sick Man of Siberia.” The author argues that the collapse of Russia would also significantly weaken international terrorism, particularly Islamist networks historically supported by Soviet and Russian structures.