The i-Criterion Dilemma: A Regulatory Impact Assessment of Market Displacement, Fiscal Contraction, and Criminological Risk in Amsterdam

This study assesses enforcing a cannabis coffeeshop tourist ban (the i-criterium) in Amsterdam’s projected 2026 economy. Using a Regulatory Impact Assessment approach, it highlights a notable shortfall in what the authors term “Fiscal Reciprocity”: non-resident tourists would face a combined tax burden of 33.5% (21% VAT plus 12.5% municipal tourist tax) while remaining excluded from the protections offered by a retail sector that is 98.4% Bibob-compliant. Econometric estimates, applying a substitution rate of σ = 0.3, predict an overall economic decline of €488 million and an associated €55 million displacement into unregulated street markets labeled here as “Criminal Capture.” The paper recommends adopting a “De‑Risking Strategy” — a 24‑month pause in new regulatory measures to reassess current fiscal disincentives before moving forward with prohibitionist enforcement.