Geopolitical Risk: A Structural Model Based on the Hobbesian Theory of State Roles

This paper proposes a structural framework for analyzing geopolitical risk as a transition between two functional regimes of the international system: the Lockean state, characterized by sustained cooperation under credible coercive enforcement, and the Hobbesian state, in which that credibility erodes and actors prioritize self-preservation over efficiency. Drawing on Hobbes's theory of the Leviathan, the model constructs the Hobbesian Geopolitical Risk Index (HGRI), a quantitative metric that weights four dimensions of state power: coercive military imposition (P1), economic imposition (P2), strategic resilience (P3), and political cohesion (P4). Applied to the differential between the G7 and BRIC blocs over the period 2000–2022, the index reveals a progressive structural transition from the Lockean transition zone (HGRI = 41 in 2000) to a sustained Hobbesian tension zone, reaching an HGRI of 65 in 2022. The system permanently enters the Hobbesian tension zone in 2009 and has not retreated since. A global sensitivity analysis via Monte Carlo simulation with N = 10,000 Dirichlet iterations confirms that 100% of alternative weight specifications yield an HGRI above 50, and 63.5% exceed the strict Hobbesian threshold of 70.