IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/128782.html

Geopolitical Risk: A Structural Model Based on the Hobbesian Theory of State Roles

Author

Listed:
  • Jimenez, Eliel

Abstract

This paper proposes a structural framework for analyzing geopolitical risk as a transition between two functional regimes of the international system: the Lockean state, characterized by sustained cooperation under credible coercive enforcement, and the Hobbesian state, in which that credibility erodes and actors prioritize self-preservation over efficiency. Drawing on Hobbes's theory of the Leviathan, the model constructs the Hobbesian Geopolitical Risk Index (HGRI), a quantitative metric that weights four dimensions of state power: coercive military imposition (P1), economic imposition (P2), strategic resilience (P3), and political cohesion (P4). Applied to the differential between the G7 and BRIC blocs over the period 2000–2022, the index reveals a progressive structural transition from the Lockean transition zone (HGRI = 41 in 2000) to a sustained Hobbesian tension zone, reaching an HGRI of 65 in 2022. The system permanently enters the Hobbesian tension zone in 2009 and has not retreated since. A global sensitivity analysis via Monte Carlo simulation with N = 10,000 Dirichlet iterations confirms that 100% of alternative weight specifications yield an HGRI above 50, and 63.5% exceed the strict Hobbesian threshold of 70.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimenez, Eliel, 2026. "Geopolitical Risk: A Structural Model Based on the Hobbesian Theory of State Roles," MPRA Paper 128782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:128782
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/128782/1/MPRA_paper_128782.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Fearon, James D., 1995. "Rationalist explanations for war," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 379-414, July.
    3. Marco Ratto, 2008. "Analysing DSGE Models with Global Sensitivity Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 115-139, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zehri, Chokri & Alsadan, Abdullah & Saleh ben Ammar, Latifa, 2025. "Asymmetric impacts of geopolitical risks on energy Trade: Divergent vulnerabilities in emerging vs. advanced economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    2. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Diakonova, Marina & Molina, Luis & Mueller, Hannes & Pérez, Javier J. & Rauh, Christopher, 2024. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
    4. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Manu, Ana-Simona & Lopardo, Gianluigi, 2025. "Verba volant, transcripta manent: what corporate earnings calls reveal about the AI stock rally," Working Paper Series 3093, European Central Bank.
    5. Charles H. Anderton, 2017. "The bargaining theory of war and peace," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 12(2), pages 10-15, October.
    6. Alessandro Paolo Rigamonti & Giulio Greco & Mariarita Pierotti & Alessandro Capocchi, 2024. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and earnings management: evidence from commodity firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1615-1649, May.
    7. Zhibing Li & Jia Liu & Jie Liu & Xiaoyu Liu & Yinglun Zhu, 2024. "The causal effect of political risk on the stock market: Evidence from a natural experiment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 145-162, March.
    8. Clayton L. Thyne, 2006. "Cheap Signals with Costly Consequences," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 937-961, December.
    9. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    10. Austin L. Wright, 2016. "Economic Shocks and Rebel," HiCN Working Papers 232, Households in Conflict Network.
    11. Philip Barrett & Mariia Bondar & Sophia Chen & Mali Chivakul & Deniz Igan, 2024. "Pricing protest: the response of financial markets to social unrest," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1419-1450.
    12. Jia, Lijun & Xu, Ruoyu & Wu, Jian & Song, Malin & Chen, Xueli, 2023. "Impacts of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty on metal futures price volatility: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    13. Jamel Saadaoui & Russell Smyth & Joaquin Vespignani & Yitian Wang, 2026. "Use-Specific Storage Premia and Market Stabilization for Critical Minerals in the Presence of Geopolitical Risk," Working Papers hal-05505234, HAL.
    14. Kerstin Bernoth, 2025. "Dovish Coos or Hawkish Screech? From Central Bank Talk to Economic Walk," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2137, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Pye, Steve & Sabio, Nagore & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "An integrated systematic analysis of uncertainties in UK energy transition pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 673-684.
    16. Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2021. "The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1592-1620.
    17. Junlian Gong & Jun Nagayasu, 2025. "What Makes the Oil Pricing Center? The Impact of Futures Markets and Production," TUPD Discussion Papers 71, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    18. Satar Bakhsh & Md Shabbir Alam & Wei Zhang, 2024. "Green finance and Sustainable Development Goals: is there a role for geopolitical uncertainty?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-30, August.
    19. PAPAINOG, Maria-Teodora, 2026. "The Impact Of Geopolitical Crises On Fiscal And Budgetary Stability," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 30(1), pages 110-124, March.
    20. Glauben Thomas & Svanidze Miranda, 2023. "Globaler Agrarhandel: robustes Sicherheitsnetz zur Reduktion von Hungerrisiken in Krisenzeiten," Wirtschaftsdienst, Paradigm, vol. 103(7), pages 491-499, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:128782. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.