Macro Determinants of Global Financial Inclusion: Evidence from World Data

The study investigates the macro determinants of global financial inclusion using world data from 1999 to 2023 period. The data were analysed using the fully modified ordinary least squares regression estimator, the two-stage least squares regression estimator and the robust least squares regression estimator. The determinants examined are total domestic investment, macroeconomic management frameworks, international trade openness, total population size, consumer spending, and economic growth rate. The findings reveal that population size and trade openness have a positive effect on global financial inclusion through a higher financial inclusion index and commercial bank branch expansion. Total domestic investment and sound macroeconomic management have a negative effect on global financial inclusion through a decrease in the financial inclusion index and a reduction in the number of bank branches and the negative effect is more pronounced in the post-financial crisis years. However, total population size remain a positive determinant of global financial inclusion in the post-financial crisis years. Trade openness and consumer spending increase global financial inclusion during periods of economic prosperity while total domestic investment and sound macroeconomic management decrease global financial inclusion during periods of economic prosperity. In terms of forward-looking orientation, the study finds that a large population and weak macroeconomic management in the present period leads to financial inclusion gains in the future. It is recommended that policy adjustments in today’s population size and macroeconomic management frameworks can help to achieve future financial inclusion targets. The findings contribute to the financial inclusion literature by using world data to offer new insights into the factors that can accelerate global financial inclusion.