آسیب شناسی رشد اقتصادی[Diagnosing Binding Constraints on Economic Growth]

Persistent underperformance in long-term economic growth remains a critical policy concern for many developing economies. This paper undertakes a review of three conventional analytical tools—cross-country growth regressions, growth accounting, and international benchmarking—arguing that their aggregated nature and structural assumptions often fail to identify economy-specific, binding growth constraints. As an alternative, it advances the Growth Diagnostics framework pioneered by Hausmann, Rodrik, and Velasco, which employs decision-tree logic to systematically isolate the most restrictive bottlenecks to private investment and entrepreneurial activity. The study synthesizes evidence from World Bank applications and country case studies (e.g., Mongolia, Brazil, Pakistan, and Nicaragua) to illustrate the framework’s practical relevance and limitations, including judgment-dependence, non-linear interactions among constraints, and static bias. Applying these insights to developing countries economic context and their Development Plan targets, the paper contends that adopting a Growth Diagnostics approach would enable policymakers to prioritize structural reforms, strengthen property rights and governance, improve financial intermediation, and more efficiently allocate scarce resources. Such targeted interventions are essential to achieving the high economic growth objective and fostering sustained, inclusive development.