IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shadow banking and the dynamics of aggregate leverage: An application of the Kalman filter to cyclical leverage measures


  • Christian Calmès

    () (Département des sciences administratives, Université du Québec (Outaouais), Chaire d'information financière et organisationnelle, ESG-UQAM, and Laboratory for Research in Statistics and Probability)

  • Raymond Théoret

    () (Département de finance, Université du Québec (Montréal), Chaire d'information financière et organisationnelle, ESG-UQAM, and Université du Québec (Outaouais))


During the last decades, banks off-balance sheet (OBS) activities (e.g. securitization, trading and fee-based activities) have greatly contributed to the increase in bank risk. However, the standard financial indicators such as the Value-at-Risk and the accounting leverage, exclude these non-traditional activities, and neglect the increased risk market-oriented banking generates. In this paper, we study various measures of leverage in the context of shadow banking, relying on a dynamic setting, which features Kalman filter procedures and different detrending methods. Applying this framework to Canadian data, we can detect the increase in risk associated to banks new business lines years before what the conventional risk measures predict. We also find that the elasticity measures of leverage, compared to the simple balance sheet ratios like the ratio of assets to equity or the mandatory leverage measure, are generally more forward-looking indicators of bank risk, and better capture the cyclical pattern of bank leverage. The main contribution of this paper is to show that OBS activities exert a stronger influence on these leverage measures during expansion periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2011. "Shadow banking and the dynamics of aggregate leverage: An application of the Kalman filter to cyclical leverage measures," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp022011, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
  • Handle: RePEc:pqs:wpaper:022011

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    Leverage; Banking; Off-balance sheet activities; Liquidity; Kalman Filter.;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pqs:wpaper:022011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Calmes). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.