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Antipersistence in German stock returns

Author

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  • Karl-Kuno Kunze
  • Hans Gerhard Strohe

Abstract

Persistence of stock returns is an extensively studied and discussed theme in the analysis of financial markets. Antipersistence is usually attributed to volatilities. However, not only volatilities but also stock returns can exhibit antipersistence. Antipersistent noise has a somewhat rougher appearance than Gaussian noise. Heuristically spoken, price movements are more likely followed by movements in the opposite direction than in the same direction. The pertaining integrated process exhibits a smaller range – prices seem to stay in the vicinity of the initial value. We apply a widely used test based upon the modified R/S-Method by Lo [1991] to daily returns of 21 German stocks from 1960 to 2008. Combining this test with the concept of moving windows by Carbone et al. [2004], we are able to determine periods of antipersistence for some of the series under examination. Our results suggest that antipersistence can be found for stocks and periods where extraordinary corporate actions such as mergers & acquisitions or financial distress are present. These effects should be properly accounted for when choosing and designing models for inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl-Kuno Kunze & Hans Gerhard Strohe, 2010. "Antipersistence in German stock returns," Statistische Diskussionsbeiträge 39, Universität Potsdam, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  • Handle: RePEc:pot:statdp:39
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    File URL: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-45582
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    Keywords

    Antipersistence; Capital and Ownership Structure; Efficient Market Hypothesis; Long Memory; Mergers and Acquisitions; Stock Returns;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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