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O problema do crescente endividamento de Portugal à luz da New Macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Cosme da Costa Vieira

    () (Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto)

Abstract

Neste texto apresento o modelo base da abordagem teórica denominada por New Macroeconomics aplicando-o à tendência secular, aos ciclos económicos e ao crescente endividamento de Portugal. É demonstrado que i) o endividamento crescente prejudica as exportações e favorece as importações e que, ii) não podendo o aumentar para sempre, a correcção do endividamento será feita pela subida da taxa de juro real e descida do salário nominal. A tentativa (sindical e governamental) de evitar a queda dos salários nominais terá como efeito um aumento ainda maior da taxa de juro real e uma taxa de desemprego muito elevada que levará à deslocação da mão-de-obra para o exterior (emigração). As conclusões do modelo parecem estar de acordo com a evidência empírica.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Cosme da Costa Vieira, 2010. "O problema do crescente endividamento de Portugal à luz da New Macroeconomics," FEP Working Papers 363, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  • Handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:363
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    File URL: http://www.fep.up.pt/investigacao/workingpapers/10.02.18_wp363.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Novos Clássicos; Nova Macroeconomia; Endividamento Público;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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