Industrialization and Economic Development in Dani Rodrik's Thought (2004-2024): From Growing Convergence with New-developmentalism to a return to a Monoeconomics Framework?

This paper analyses the evolution of Dani Rodrik’s thinking on economic development and industrialization between 2004 and 2024, a period during which his vision shifted from an industrialization-centred perspective to a more nuanced and multidimensional approach. The study examines how his understanding of the role of manufacturing and services in economic development was transformed due to contemporary challenges, including premature deindustrialization, technological change, and environmental imperatives. Through a systematic analysis of his major works, the paper identifies three distinct phases in his thinking: early (2004-2013), focused on industrial and exchange rate policies; middle (2015-2016), marked by the recognition of premature deindustrialization; and recent (2019-2024), characterized by an emphasis on the services sector and adaptive policies. The first two phases of Rodrik´s thinking had as common trace a growing convergence with many of the ideas developed by New-Developmentalist authors. In the last phase, however, Rodrik’s intellectual evolution reflects a return to more neoclassical tenets as compared to the more new-developmentalist approach of his early thinking due to a growing pessimism about industrialization as the main driver for economic development.