Stalled Transitions, Constrained Choices: Evidence from HIES 2024-25 and the Conditions for Pakistan's Demographic Dividend

This Knowledge Brief examines Pakistan's demographic transition using evidence from the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2024-25 to assess the conditions under which Pakistan can realize a demographic dividend. With 67 per cent of the population below the age of 30 and approximately 63 million people aged 15-29, the structural potential for a dividend is present. HIES 2024-25 data reveals four interconnected constraints to realize this dividend. First, the fertility transition has effectively stalled. The Total Fertility Rate declined marginally from 3.7 to 3.6 between HIES 2018-19 and HIES 2024-25 - a change too small to alter population momentum. More significantly, fertility increased among secondary-educated women and the wealthiest quintile, complicating the standard assumption that education and income automatically drive fertility down. Second, near-universal contraceptive knowledge has not translated into use: only 38 per cent of married women use any method. The evidence points to constrained reproductive agency and limited demand for smaller families, not a supply or information failure. Third, provincial divergence is widening, with Balochistan's TFR at 5.0 and Punjab's at 3.3 - a gap that signals multiple simultaneous demographic transitions which a uniform national policy cannot address. Fourth, human capital deficits are severe-28 million children aged 5-16 are out of school, and 28.4% of youth aged 15-24 are not in education, employment, or training (NEET) - a structural liability that high fertility actively compounds. Pakistan's demographic dividend is not automatic - it must be earned. Population policy must be repositioned as a macroeconomic priority, with differentiated provincial strategies, agency-centred family planning, and demographic targets embedded in national fiscal frameworks. Without this repositioning, the youth bulge will become a liability rather than an asset.