Food and Agriculture in Asia Towards the Year 2000

On the basis of available food supply levels of Japan and the Asian NICs in the early 1980s, it is assumed that 2,600 calories represent available food levels needed for all Asian countries under full employment conditions. This levels is substantially higher than estimates of Asian and WHO nutritionists (about 2,200). Their estimates are based on existing levels of unemployment and underemployment in South and Southeast Asian countries. The 2,600 calorie levels of available food supply corresponds to 2,300 to 2,400 of actual food intake levels, taking into account spoilage, wasters, and losses from meal preparations. The food situations are most serious for South Asian countries, even though some of the countries (like India) are reported to be reaching self-sufficiency in rice. But this is achieved at low levels of per capita income and calorie intake of 1,800/1,900 with deficiencies in proteins, and other nutrients. In Southeast Asian and the insufficiencies and inadequacies in food intake are in the low income families of peasants and laborers. For both regions, rice yield can be gradually improved greater use of modern inputs, and it is in the non-rice food products (vegetables, fruits and animal products) that deficiencies are great. But eventually most of the rice needs can be met with rising yields during the rainy seasons of the monsoons through the use of modern inputs. Therefore, the need is for expanding production toward non-rice, diversified crops and animal products during the dry season. Diversification of agriculture will lead to fuller utilization of rural manpower in monsoon agriculture; work will be available not only for the second and third crops, but also in the processing and marketing of the diversified crops (not to mention rural public works, noted above). This will enable rural families to raise their annual incomes and purchasing power for industrial products and services, thereby generating urban jobs, and reducing income inequalities. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea which succeeded in diversifying their agriculture in the past, should now stop protecting their agriculture and move toward reducing farm production. Their purchase of food from the other Asian countries will facilitate the shift to diversification in the other countries through export earnings, for mechanizing farming, processing and public works. And as farm productivity rises, labor can be released to the other sectors, while improved nutrition will lower mortality with favorable impact on fertility and population growth.