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Mapping Provincial Heterogeneity in the Philippines: A Cluster Analysis of Climate and Macroeconomic Indicators

Author

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  • Rivera, John Paolo R.
  • Miral, Ramona Maria L.

Abstract

Provincial heterogeneity in the Philippines is examined by integrating climate, macroeconomic, and fiscal indicators within a unified framework. Moving beyond regression-based approaches, k-means clustering is applied to identify natural groupings of provinces based on combined climate-real-fiscal (CRF) characteristics. Utilizing satellite-derived climate data and administrative economic and fiscal datasets, the analysis reveals a clear core-periphery structure. Metropolitan Manila emerges as a highly urbanized, service-driven, and fiscally dominant outlier, while the rest of the country divides into (1) warmer, transitioning provinces with emerging diversification and (2) cooler, wetter, agriculture-dependent provinces with higher climate exposure and weaker fiscal capacity. The results highlight strong interlinkages between climate conditions, economic structure, and fiscal resilience, indicating a climate-macroeconomic trap in vulnerable regions. A policy-relevant typology is provided to support differentiated, place-based interventions for more efficient targeting of climate finance and development programs. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph.

Suggested Citation

  • Rivera, John Paolo R. & Miral, Ramona Maria L., 2026. "Mapping Provincial Heterogeneity in the Philippines: A Cluster Analysis of Climate and Macroeconomic Indicators," Discussion Papers DP 2026-11, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2026-11
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.62986/dp2026.11
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