When Rain Falls, Work Slows: Rainfall Variability and Working Hours in the Philippine Labor Market

This study examines the impact of rainfall variability on weekly hours worked among Filipino workers, utilizing nationally representative Labor Force Survey (LFS) data merged with regional rainfall records from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). While existing research has primarily focused on weather shocks and their effects on agricultural output, income, and employment status, less attention has been directed toward short-term adjustments in actual working hours. By analyzing weekly hours worked, this work provides a more detailed assessment of how climate variability influences labor supply behavior. Using high-dimensional fixed-effects (FE) models, the analysis estimates the association between rainfall intensity and weekly working hours while controlling for demographic characteristics, employment arrangements, and time effects. Results indicate that higher rainfall is linked to modest, statistically significant reductions in weekly hours worked. The effects exhibit considerable heterogeneity, with workers in day-to-day and short-term employment arrangements experiencing significantly larger reductions than permanent workers, highlighting the vulnerability of precarious employment. Significant negative impacts are also observed in weather-exposed occupations and selected manufacturing subsectors, suggesting that rainfall affects labor supply not only through direct exposure but also through disruptions to mobility, production processes, and supply chains. Regional patterns reveal stronger sensitivity to rainfall in typhoon-prone and agriculturally intensive areas. Overall, rainfall variability acts as a segmented labor market shock, emphasizing the necessity for climate-responsive labor and social protection policies. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph.