Dreams and Small Means: Career Aspirations of Children in the Philippine 4Ps Program

This study examines the career aspirations of economically disadvantaged Filipino children participating in the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps), the Philippines' flagship conditional cash transfer program. Using data from 9,958 children aged 10 to 25 collected through the Fourth Wave Impact Evaluation Survey, we document children's preferred occupations and analyze how these aspirations relate to individual, household, and program participation factors. Children in both 4Ps and non-4Ps households demonstrate ambitious career aspirations, predominantly targeting professional and service occupations that represent substantial upward mobility compared to their parents' current employment in elementary or agricultural work. These aspirations remain stable from ages 10 to 25, suggesting that children form career goals relatively early and maintain them through adolescence into early adulthood. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find no detectable causal effect of 4Ps eligibility on children's career aspirations. Program participation does not influence the income levels associated with children's dream occupations or the probability of aspiring to professional careers or service/sales work. These null findings are robust across multiple specifications, bandwidth choices, and outcome measures. Multinomial logit analysis reveals that parental aspirations are the dominant determinant of children's career goals, with coefficients far exceeding those of other factors in the model. When parents aspire for their child to become a professional, children are significantly more likely to hold professional aspirations themselves (coefficient = 3.167, z = 24.06). Gender also plays a significant role: boys are much less likely to aspire to professional or service occupations. Individual characteristics such as grit and functional literacy show modest positive associations with professional aspirations, but their effects are small compared to parental influence. Our findings indicate that while 4Ps has been shown in prior evaluations to improve educational outcomes, it does not expand children's career aspirations. Cash transfers alone may be insufficient to reshape aspirations; additional interventions targeting parental knowledge and expectations, providing career information and guidance, and creating exposure to diverse role models may be necessary to broaden what disadvantaged children perceive as feasible career options for their futures. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph.