ASEAN's Ascent: A Global Power in the Making

This study investigates the potential of ASEAN to emerge as a global power by evaluating its composite capabilities, strategic positioning, and the multifaceted challenges it faces in an increasingly multipolar world. Using a framework that utilizes Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-regularized ordinal logistic regression, the paper quantifies ASEAN's economic, political, cultural, and technological positioning relative to existing global powers. Findings suggest that ASEAN collectively aligns most closely with emerging powers but exhibits statistical tendencies bordering polar status under refined LASSO models. ASEAN centrality enhances its leverage in regional and inter-polar cooperation, particularly in trade, diplomacy, and digital governance. However, internal asymmetries, limited strategic autonomy, and institutional inertia pose barriers to its ascent. Policy implications call for deeper integration, green and digital leadership, and normative assertiveness to sustain ASEAN’s trajectory toward polar influence. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph.