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Low Fertility, Ageing Buildings, and School Congestion in the Philippines: Tailwinds, Headwinds, and Some Policy Options

Author

Listed:
  • Abrigo, Michael R.M.
  • Lingatong, Edmar E.
  • Relos, Charlotte Marjorie L.
  • Perez, Tania Dew S.
  • Quejada, Noel Angelo M.
  • Daga, Erwin Doroteo Justien C.
  • Estopace, Katha Ma-i
  • Paquibot, Jesusa L.
  • Gavan, Dianne Stephanie A.

Abstract

This study estimates future demand for public school classrooms using new projections of the school-age children population for 82 provinces and 33 urbanized cities in the Philippines up to 2060. A return to replacement-level fertility from the current total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 is expected to ease demand for public school classrooms, except in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, where the population of school-age children is projected to continue increasing. A below-replacement TFR will likely lead to a greater reduction in classroom congestion in public schools. However, significant school infrastructure backlogs and the aging of existing school buildings are expected to remain important issues in the future, despite potential benefits from low fertility. The study also highlights potential contributing factors to current classroom congestion. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph.

Suggested Citation

  • Abrigo, Michael R.M. & Lingatong, Edmar E. & Relos, Charlotte Marjorie L. & Perez, Tania Dew S. & Quejada, Noel Angelo M. & Daga, Erwin Doroteo Justien C. & Estopace, Katha Ma-i & Paquibot, Jesusa L. , 2025. "Low Fertility, Ageing Buildings, and School Congestion in the Philippines: Tailwinds, Headwinds, and Some Policy Options," Discussion Papers DP 2025-10, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-10
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.62986/dp2025.10
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