How Energy Secure is the Philippines?

Energy security is a comprehensive concept, and pursuing it as a developmental goal entails, first and foremost, a clearer understanding of what it means. This study proposes six broad elements in assessing energy security: sufficiency, reliability, resilience, affordability, accessibility, and sustainability. In assessing the energy security situation in the Philippines, the study employs an indicators-based assessment. Based on existing literature, the method involves defining specific energy security indicators (ESIs) corresponding to the six broad elements mentioned, running some calculations, and conducting trend analysis using available data. The analyses of ESI trends over time and comparisons with other Southeast Asian countries reveal notable findings, most of which point to the current energy insecurity of the Philippines. The study then offers recommendations to improve energy security in the country and suggests that each element of energy security be considered an area of future research. As a demonstration of further scrutiny of an aspect of energy security, the study further examines energy sufficiency by forecasting electric power demand and comparing the forecasts with the government’s outlook on generating capacity up to 2028. The results highlight the necessity of timely investments in additional generating capacity and an efficient government permitting system. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph.