IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/phd/dpaper/dp_2009-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Farm-level Corn Production through Simulation Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Gonzales, Kathrina G.
  • Predo, Canesio D.
  • de Guzman, Rosalina G.
  • Reyes, Celia M.

Abstract

Rainfall variability greatly influences corn production. Thus, an accurate forecast is potentially of value to the farmers because it could help them decide whether to grow their corn now or to delay it for the next cropping opportunity. A decision tree analysis was applied in estimating the value of seasonal climate forecast (SCF) information for corn farmers in Isabela. The study aims to estimate the value of SCF to agricultural decisionmakers under climate uncertainty. Historical climatic data of Isabela from 1951 to 2006 from PAGASA and crop management practices of farmers were used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) to test the potential impact of climate change on corn. The approach is developed for a more accurate SCF and to be able to simulate corn yields for wet and dry seasons under different climatic conditions. While SCF may potentially affect a number of decisions including crop management practices, fertilizer inputs, and variety selection, the focus of the study was on the effect of climate on corn production. Improving SCF will enhance rainfed corn farmers’ decisionmaking capacity to minimize losses brought about by variable climate conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzales, Kathrina G. & Predo, Canesio D. & de Guzman, Rosalina G. & Reyes, Celia M., 2009. "Assessing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Farm-level Corn Production through Simulation Modeling," Discussion Papers DP 2009-05, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2009-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://serp-p.pids.gov.ph/serp-p/download.php?d=4457&s=3
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ephias M. Makaudze, 2012. "Assessing the Economic Value of El Niñobased seasonal climate forecasts for smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe," Working Papers 303, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    seasonal climate forecast (SCF); decision tree analysis; climate uncertainty; Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT);

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2009-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Aniceto Orbeta) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/pidgvph.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.