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Assessing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Farm-level Corn Production through Simulation Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Gonzales, Kathrina G.
  • Predo, Canesio D.
  • de Guzman, Rosalina G.
  • Reyes, Celia M.

Abstract

Rainfall variability greatly influences corn production. Thus, an accurate forecast is potentially of value to the farmers because it could help them decide whether to grow their corn now or to delay it for the next cropping opportunity. A decision tree analysis was applied in estimating the value of seasonal climate forecast (SCF) information for corn farmers in Isabela. The study aims to estimate the value of SCF to agricultural decisionmakers under climate uncertainty. Historical climatic data of Isabela from 1951 to 2006 from PAGASA and crop management practices of farmers were used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) to test the potential impact of climate change on corn. The approach is developed for a more accurate SCF and to be able to simulate corn yields for wet and dry seasons under different climatic conditions. While SCF may potentially affect a number of decisions including crop management practices, fertilizer inputs, and variety selection, the focus of the study was on the effect of climate on corn production. Improving SCF will enhance rainfed corn farmers’ decisionmaking capacity to minimize losses brought about by variable climate conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzales, Kathrina G. & Predo, Canesio D. & de Guzman, Rosalina G. & Reyes, Celia M., 2009. "Assessing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Farm-level Corn Production through Simulation Modeling," Discussion Papers DP 2009-05, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2009-05
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    File URL: https://www.pids.gov.ph/publication/discussion-papers/assessing-the-value-of-seasonal-climate-forecasts-on-farm-level-corn-production-through-simulation-modeling
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    Cited by:

    1. Ephias M. Makaudze, 2012. "Assessing the Economic Value of El Niñobased seasonal climate forecasts for smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe," Working Papers 303, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    seasonal climate forecast (SCF); decision tree analysis; climate uncertainty; Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT);
    All these keywords.

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