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Producto potencial y demanda agregada: a propósito de la experiencia peruana

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Dancourt

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

Esta nota inserta una ecuación a la Blanchard (2018), donde el producto potencial depende de la brecha del producto, en una versión del Mundell-Fleming estimada para la economia peruana por Cermeño et al (2016). El modelo con el PBI potencial endógeno dice casi lo mismo, a través de las simulaciones numéricas, que los modelos keynesianos con el PBI potencial exógeno, pero otorga más poder, para bien o para mal, a las políticas monetaria y fiscal. Y hace más temibles a los choques externos adversos. La política monetaria puede tener un componente de profecía autocumplida. Si el banco central aplica una regla de Taylor y subestima el producto potencial, elevará la tasa de interés y reducirá así el producto potencial y viceversa. Palabras claves: Políticamonetaria, Política fiscal, Choques externos, Producto potencial, Simulación con modelos de economía abierta. JEL Classification-JE: E520, E580, E620, F410, F470

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Dancourt, 2025. "Producto potencial y demanda agregada: a propósito de la experiencia peruana," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2025-550, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00550
    DOI: 10.18800/2079-8474.0550
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