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Inmigración masiva, salarios reales y empleo: un modelo keynesiano

Author

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  • Oscar Dancourt

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

La llegada masiva de los inmigrantes venezolanos, que escapan de la catástrofe macroeconómica causada por el gobierno de Maduro, es un evento único en la historia económica reciente del Perú. Este texto intenta mostrar que un modelo keynesiano, donde el empleo depende de la demanda agregada, puede identificar los dos canales a través de los cuales una inmigración masiva reduce, en el corto plazo, el empleo y los salarios reales. Estos dos canales son el incremento de la fuerza laboral que reduce los salarios nominales y reales, y la disminución de la propensión a consumir de los asalariados si ocurre una sustitución de trabajadores locales por inmigrantes entre los ocupados. Los trabajadores venezolanos no tienen responsabilidad alguna en la creación de esta situación. Como los peruanos que han emigrado desde los años 80, ellos solo buscan lo mejor para sus familias. La responsabilidad entera la tiene el gobierno de Kuczynski y su política de libre inmigración que amplia artificialmente el excedente de mano de obra urbana existente en la economía peruana. JEL Classification-JEL: E120 , E240 , J610 Keywords: Empleo , Inmigración , Modelos Keynesianos , Salario Real

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Dancourt, 2018. "Inmigración masiva, salarios reales y empleo: un modelo keynesiano," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-452, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00452
    DOI: 10.18800/2079-8474.0452
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    Keywords

    empleo ; inmigración ; modelos keynesianos ; salario real;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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