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Is there a link between unemployment and criminality in the us economy? Further evidence

Author

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  • Firouz Fallahi
  • Gabriel Rodríguez

    () (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

Using Markov-Switching models, this paper studies the existence of a relationship between the unemployment rate and four different types of crimes in the U.S. economy. After it, using the non-parametric Concordance Index of Harding and Pagan (2002, 2006), the correlation between the cycles of unemployment rate and crime variables is determined. Results confirm that there is no significant relationship between the unemployment rate, burglary and motor-vehicle theft. However, the unemployment rate has a significant relationship with robbery and larceny. The contemporaneous relationship is positive for robbery and negative for larceny. However, it turns to be positive between the lagged values of the unemployment rate and larceny.

Suggested Citation

  • Firouz Fallahi & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2010. "Is there a link between unemployment and criminality in the us economy? Further evidence," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2010-285, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00285
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    File URL: http://files.pucp.edu.pe/departamento/economia/DDD285.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    2. Powell, Andrew, 1991. "Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-1496, November.
    3. Osmel Manzano & Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "Resource Curse or Debt Overhang?," NBER Working Papers 8390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2004. "Managing Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide Overview," NBER Working Papers 10602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov-Switching Models; Cycles; Unemployment; Crime.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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