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Is there a link between unemployment and criminality in the us economy? Further evidence


  • Firouz Fallahi
  • Gabriel Rodríguez

    () (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)


Using Markov-Switching models, this paper studies the existence of a relationship between the unemployment rate and four different types of crimes in the U.S. economy. After it, using the non-parametric Concordance Index of Harding and Pagan (2002, 2006), the correlation between the cycles of unemployment rate and crime variables is determined. Results confirm that there is no significant relationship between the unemployment rate, burglary and motor-vehicle theft. However, the unemployment rate has a significant relationship with robbery and larceny. The contemporaneous relationship is positive for robbery and negative for larceny. However, it turns to be positive between the lagged values of the unemployment rate and larceny.

Suggested Citation

  • Firouz Fallahi & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2010. "Is there a link between unemployment and criminality in the us economy? Further evidence," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2010-285, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00285

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    Markov-Switching Models; Cycles; Unemployment; Crime.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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