Crisis de balanza de pagos: el Rol de los factores internos y los factores externos

This paper presents a balance-of-payments crises model –in the line of the “firstgeneration” models– in order to estimate the moment in which the fixed exchange rate collapse occurs. In contrast to the standard literature about balance-of-payments crises –which emphasizes the role of macroeconomic policy as a source of fixed exchange rate crises–, this paper shows that, under fixed exchange rate and perfect capital mobility, an adverse international context (like an increase in the international interest rate) could yield a balance–of-payments crises similar to those generated by macroeconomic policy.